The People's Verdict
← Back·04-10-2026·5 min read·The Bulletin

Trump threatens NATO. North Korea tests cluster-bomb missiles. The Fed signals rate hikes are back on the table.

What you need to know before Friday starts.

NATO
Trump threatened to pull the US out of NATO over a war NATO never authorized.

After a roughly two-hour meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House Wednesday, Trump posted a lengthy grievance toward NATO on Truth Social. Specifically, NATO allies refused to allow the US to use their bases to launch attacks against Iran. However, there is a catch. A 2023 law prohibits any president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without congressional approval. So what Trump actually means or intends to do with NATO is still up in the air, as US law bars him from leaving the alliance on his own terms. European allies have countered that they were never consulted before the war was launched on February 28, and that Article 5Article 5The collective defense clause of the NATO treaty. It states that an attack on one member is an attack on all. Article 5 does not require members to join offensive military operations — only to respond to an attack on a member nation. covers defense, not offensive military campaigns.

NORTH KOREA
North Korea tested ballistic missiles with cluster-bomb warheadscluster-bomb warheadsMunitions that release dozens or hundreds of smaller submunitions over a wide area upon detonation. They are designed to saturate large zones with explosive force, making them effective against dispersed targets. Most NATO countries have banned them under the 2008 Oslo Convention due to high civilian casualty rates. North Korea is not a signatory.See full definition ↓.

North Korea conducted a 3-day weapons testing spree Monday through Wednesday that included ballistic missiles armed with cluster-bomb warheadsCluster-Bomb WarheadsMunitions that release dozens or hundreds of smaller submunitions over a wide area upon detonation. They are designed to saturate large zones with explosive force, making them effective against dispersed targets. Most NATO countries have banned them under the 2008 Oslo Convention due to high civilian casualty rates. North Korea is not a signatory.. State media said the cluster-munition warhead was mounted on the nuclear-capable Hwasong-11, a missile designed for low-altitude, maneuverable flight specifically to evade missile defense systems. South Korea's military confirmed multiple launches. The timing is significant: North Korea has been conducting these tests during the biggest US military engagement in decades, when American attention is fully committed elsewhere.

TECH
Anthropic built an AI model allegedly so powerful it decided not to release it to the public.

Anthropic released a preview of a new AI model called Claude Mythos, but restricted it to about 40 vetted cybersecurity organizations, saying it was too dangerous for public access. Anthropic claims the model identified thousands of previously unknown software vulnerabilities across every major operating system and web browser. The restricted access is framed as a precedent for future releases of powerful models: give access only to organizations with sufficient security infrastructure to test and contain the risks. The initiative is called Project Glasswing.

ECONOMY
The Fed's March minutes revealed something markets did not want to hear: rate hikes are back on the table.

The Federal Reserve released its notes from the March 17-18 meeting, signaling a discussion of both rate cuts and rate hikes — a sign of deep uncertainty about where the economy is headed. The core problem is stagflationStagflationAn economic condition combining stagnant growth and elevated inflation simultaneously — historically difficult to address because the tools used to fight inflation (raising rates) also slow growth. The term became prominent during the 1970s oil crisis.: inflation is running above the Fed's 2% target, driven by oil prices from the Strait disruption, while growth has slowed significantly. The minutes showed more policymakers than in January are now open to a rate hike this year, with core PCECore PCEPersonal Consumption Expenditures price index, excluding food and energy — the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The Fed targets 2% annual PCE inflation. When core PCE runs above target, the Fed faces pressure to raise interest rates to cool the economy. elevated and no clear path to cuts in sight.

SOCIETY
The US fertility rate hit a record low in 2025.

The CDC released provisional birth data Thursday showing the US fertility rate at 53.1 births per 1,000 women — the lowest ever recorded. About 3.6 million babies were born in 2025, down 1% from 2024 and nearly 20% lower than two decades ago. Demographers point to cost of living, delayed partnership, career demands, and the increased intensity of modern parenting as potential driving factors. This arrives in a politically charged context: Trump has been encouraging people to have more children while simultaneously cutting programs that support families.

This Week's Verdict
Is Mamdani's New York a Socialist Experiment?

The final section is live. All five days are now unlocked.

Sources
Mamdani — The Verdict
Key Terms
cluster-bomb warheads
Munitions that release dozens or hundreds of smaller submunitions over a wide area upon detonation. They are designed to saturate large zones with explosive force, making them effective against dispersed targets. Most NATO countries have banned them under the 2008 Oslo Convention due to high civilian casualty rates. North Korea is not a signatory.
core PCE
Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, excluding food and energy — the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The Fed targets 2% annual PCE inflation. When core PCE runs above target, the Fed faces pressure to raise interest rates to cool the economy.
democratic socialism
A political philosophy that advocates for a democratic political system alongside a socially owned or heavily regulated economy. Supporters point to Scandinavian countries as models; critics invoke Venezuela or Cuba. Mamdani's platform is closer to the former: market competition with publicly provided services layered on top.
Article 5
The collective defense clause of the NATO treaty. It states that an attack on one member is an attack on all. Article 5 does not require members to join offensive military operations — only to respond to an attack on a member nation.
stagflation
An economic condition combining stagnant growth and elevated inflation simultaneously — historically difficult to address because the tools used to fight inflation (raising rates) also slow growth. The term became prominent during the 1970s oil crisis.