The People's Verdict
← Back·04-11-2026·4 min read·The Bulletin

Vance flies to Islamabad. Inflation hits its biggest monthly jump since 2022. Someone may have been betting on the war from inside the White House.

What you need to know before Saturday starts.

IRAN + DIPLOMACY
Vance flies to Islamabad for the most high-stakes US talks since 1979.

Vance departed Washington Friday leading a US delegation for proximity talks with Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan. The two parties will not sit face to face, but will instead be in separate rooms at the Serena Hotel. This is the highest-level engagement between the US and Iran since before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran's delegation is led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf. Vance left the country on an optimistic note, saying the administration thinks the talks are going to be positive. Trump followed that up by saying the only reason Iran is alive is because they are willing to negotiate.

WORLD
The UK Prime Minister put Trump and Putin in the same sentence.

During a visit to Gulf states, British Prime Minister StarmerStarmerKeir Starmer, leader of the UK Labour Party and Prime Minister since July 2024. He defeated the Conservative Party after 14 years in opposition, running on economic stability and public investment. His relationship with Trump has been tense since his initial refusal to allow US forces to use British bases for Iran strikes. said he was fed up with families across the country seeing their bills go up and down because of the actions of Trump or Putin. StarmerStarmerKeir Starmer, leader of the UK Labour Party and Prime Minister since July 2024. He defeated the Conservative Party after 14 years in opposition, running on economic stability and public investment. His relationship with Trump has been tense since his initial refusal to allow US forces to use British bases for Iran strikes.See full definition ↓ placed a sitting US president alongside a Russian war criminal as co-authors of the UK's current economic situation. Trump has called Starmer a loser and compared him to Chamberlain for initially refusing to allow the US to use UK military bases for Iran strikes.

IRAN + MIDDLE EAST
A drone hit a US diplomatic facility in Baghdad.

Iranian-aligned militias struck the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center near Baghdad International Airport on Wednesday. Five of six drones were intercepted, but one got through and hit near a guard tower. Everyone was accounted for. The US Deputy Secretary of State summoned the Iraqi Ambassador to formally convey US anger, saying the Iraqi government failed to prevent the attacks. The strikes are a reminder that the Iran war is not contained to the Iranian government: the proxy networksProxy NetworksArmed groups funded, trained, and directed by a state without that state's direct military involvement. Iran's proxy network includes militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and other groups across the Gulf region. across Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Gulf are actively targeting the US even amidst a ceasefire.

ECONOMY
March CPICPIConsumer Price Index — the Bureau of Labor Statistics' primary measure of inflation, tracking the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. A monthly reading above expectations signals accelerating inflation.See full definition ↓ shows inflation's biggest monthly jump since 2022.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released March's CPICPIConsumer Price Index — the Bureau of Labor Statistics' primary measure of inflation, tracking the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. A monthly reading above expectations signals accelerating inflation. on Friday. Inflation rose 0.9% in a single month, pushing the annual rate from 2.4% to 3.3%. The culprit was almost entirely spending on gas. Depending on the outcome of talks regarding the Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzA narrow waterway between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes through it. Iran closed the Strait following the US-Israeli strikes on February 28, triggering a global energy shock., another month at these levels makes an interest rate increase from the Fed harder to avoid. Real wages fell 0.6% for the month, meaning workers are falling behind prices faster than at any point this year.

IMMIGRATION
Mahmoud Khalil was ordered deported, but he still cannot be removed yet.

The Board of Immigration AppealsBoard of Immigration AppealsThe highest administrative body for interpreting and applying US immigration law. It reviews decisions made by immigration judges and its rulings are binding on all immigration courts. Appeals from the BIA can go to federal circuit courts. issued a final order of removal for Mahmoud Khalil, a Columbia University Palestinian activist and lawful permanent residentLawful Permanent ResidentA non-citizen who has been granted the right to live and work in the United States permanently. Also known as a green card holder. Lawful permanent residents can be deported under certain conditions, including on national security or foreign policy grounds.. He has been targeted by the Trump administration since his arrest in March 2025 for his role organizing Gaza solidarity protests on campus. The BIA affirmed an immigration judge's ruling that Khalil is deportable under a rarely-used foreign policy provision. Despite the ruling, Khalil cannot yet be deported, as the case appears to run directly against his First Amendment rights. Khalil's attorney said that in all his decades as an immigration lawyer, he has never seen such a baseless and politically motivated decision.

POLITICS
Someone may have been betting on the war from inside the White House.

On March 24, the White House issued a staff-wide email warning employees not to place bets on prediction markets using nonpublic government information. A lot of money has been made on PolymarketPolymarketA prediction market platform where users bet real money on the outcomes of future events, including political and geopolitical developments. Prices on Polymarket reflect the crowd's estimated probability of an event occurring., with at least 50 accounts placing bets on a ceasefire before Trump announced it Tuesday, with accounts netting well into the six figures on gains.

TECH
Florida is investigating OpenAI after the FSU shooter exchanged 200+ messages with ChatGPT about planning the attack.

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier announced Thursday that his office is opening a formal investigation into OpenAI. Court records show that Phoenix Ikner, the accused gunman in the April 2025 Florida State University shooting that killed two people, exchanged over 200 messages with ChatGPT leading up to the attack. The questions included how the country would react to a shooting at FSU, how police investigate shootings, and when the Student Union would be most crowded. The family of one victim plans to sue OpenAI. OpenAI said it will cooperate with the investigation.

Key Terms
Strait of Hormuz
A narrow waterway between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes through it. Iran closed the Strait following the US-Israeli strikes on February 28, triggering a global energy shock.
Starmer
Keir Starmer, leader of the UK Labour Party and Prime Minister since July 2024. He defeated the Conservative Party after 14 years in opposition, running on economic stability and public investment. His relationship with Trump has been tense since his initial refusal to allow US forces to use British bases for Iran strikes.
CPI
Consumer Price Index — the Bureau of Labor Statistics' primary measure of inflation, tracking the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. A monthly reading above expectations signals accelerating inflation.
Board of Immigration Appeals
The highest administrative body for interpreting and applying US immigration law. It reviews decisions made by immigration judges and its rulings are binding on all immigration courts. Appeals from the BIA can go to federal circuit courts.
lawful permanent resident
A non-citizen who has been granted the right to live and work in the United States permanently. Also known as a green card holder. Lawful permanent residents can be deported under certain conditions, including on national security or foreign policy grounds.
Polymarket
A prediction market platform where users bet real money on the outcomes of future events, including political and geopolitical developments. Prices on Polymarket reflect the crowd's estimated probability of an event occurring.
proxy networks
Armed groups funded, trained, and directed by a state without that state's direct military involvement. Iran's proxy network includes militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and other groups across the Gulf region.