The People's Verdict
← Back·04-16-2026·5 min read·The Bulletin

Promise by promise: what Trump said, and what actually happened.

What you need to know to start Thursday.

IRAN + US
Basically the same as yesterday.

The ceasefire holds. The blockade remains in effect. A second round of talks is still pending. No significant developments to report since yesterday's bulletin.

FROM THE EDITOR
I am taking a break today.

Please text me (Enoch) if you are actually reading! I feel like I am writing to a wall right now, but that is ok! We are learning about news writing, the market, and how to begin distributions. I'm just really tired and stressed, so I am taking a break today! Please forgive me if you actually read this daily :D

This Week's Verdict · Day 4
Is Trump Delivering? A Verdict on the Second Term
Day 4
6 min read
The Record

Promise by Promise: What He Said, and What Actually Happened

Trump's 2024 campaign made specific promises. The record below evaluates the most significant ones against available data up to April 2026. Data taken primarily from AP News.

Delivered / In Progress
Close the Border / Largest Deportation Program in History
In Progress
Achieved by: Executive Order

This is the clearest kept promise of his second term. Border crossings fell significantly. The administration achieved what is described as the first year of negative net migration in over 50 years. A caveat: enforcement swept well beyond violent criminals, and the political backlash has been measurable.

Paris Agreement / WHO Withdrawal
Kept
Achieved by: Executive Order

Both were withdrawn by executive order on January 20, 2025.

Making Expiring Tax Cuts Permanent / No Tax on Tips / No Tax on Overtime
Kept / In Progress
Achieved by: Congressional Action — the One Big Beautiful BillOne Big Beautiful BillA sweeping legislative package signed by Trump on July 4, 2025. It made the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent, created federal income tax exemptions for tips and overtime pay, and included a range of other Republican priorities. It passed along party lines in both chambers.

The One Big Beautiful BillOne Big Beautiful BillA sweeping legislative package signed by Trump on July 4, 2025. It made the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent, created federal income tax exemptions for tips and overtime pay, and included a range of other Republican priorities. It passed along party lines in both chambers.See full definition ↓ made the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent and created exemptions for tips and overtime pay. However, these exemptions only apply to federal income taxFederal Income TaxThe tax the federal government levies on individual earnings. It is progressive — higher earners pay a higher percentage. It is separate from payroll taxes, which fund Social Security and Medicare. The One Big Beautiful Bill's tips and overtime exemptions only apply to this tax, not payroll taxes., not payroll taxesPayroll TaxesTaxes automatically withheld from paychecks to fund Social Security and Medicare. Unlike income taxes, payroll taxes are flat — everyone pays the same percentage regardless of income, up to a cap. The tips and overtime exemptions in the One Big Beautiful Bill do not reduce payroll taxes.. Workers may exclude or deductExclude or DeductTwo ways of reducing taxable income. An exclusion removes income from your gross income entirely before taxes are calculated. A deduction reduces your taxable income after gross income is established. The One Big Beautiful Bill allows workers to exclude up to $25,000 in tips and $12,500 in overtime from federal taxable income. up to $25,000 in tips and $12,500 in overtime from federal taxable income — but those earnings still contribute to Social Security and Medicare.

It's Complicated
Tariffs on Countries to Make the US Rich
Complicated
Achieved by: Executive Order

Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February 2025 and pursued expanded customs enforcement. Tariff revenue rose, but consumer prices also increased. Economists have said the tariff strategy has not yet "Made America Rich," even though this remains central to Trump's economic agenda.

Eliminate Taxes on Social Security
Complicated
Method: Congressional Action

Trump campaigned explicitly: "Seniors should not have to pay taxes on Social Security." The One Big Beautiful BillOne Big Beautiful BillA sweeping legislative package signed by Trump on July 4, 2025. It made the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent, created federal income tax exemptions for tips and overtime pay, and included a range of other Republican priorities. It passed along party lines in both chambers.See full definition ↓ did not include this provision. The Senate blocked it. What Social Security holders received instead was a 2.6% cost-of-living boost.

End Birthright CitizenshipBirthright CitizenshipThe legal principle, grounded in the 14th Amendment, that anyone born on US soil is automatically a US citizen regardless of the immigration status of their parents. The US is one of roughly 30 countries that grant birthright citizenship.
Complicated
Method: Executive Order

Trump signed an executive order on day one, but multiple federal courts blocked it immediately, citing that it contradicts the 14th Amendment14th AmendmentA constitutional amendment ratified in 1868, primarily to grant citizenship to formerly enslaved people. Its Citizenship Clause states that anyone born on US soil is automatically a citizen. Trump's executive order sought to end this — courts immediately blocked it, ruling it contradicts the amendment's plain text.. The case will move to the Supreme Court. The promise is in legal limbo: neither kept nor abandoned.

Not Delivered
Cut Energy Prices in Half within 12–18 Months
Not Delivered
Method: Executive Order / Congressional Action

Energy is getting more expensive, especially with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has not delivered on this promise.

End the Russia-Ukraine War
Not Delivered
Method: Diplomacy

Trump said he would end the war before he even took office. He did not. Diplomatic engagement has continued, but the war has continued through April 2026.

The Pattern

The promises Trump could keep through executive power alone, he has largely delivered. The promises that required Congress, economic results, or diplomacy are in limbo. This is neither praise nor critique of Trump — it is the structural logic of the presidency. In order for Trump to deliver on everything he has promised, he must gain the approval of Congress.

Key Terms
federal income tax
The tax the federal government levies on individual earnings. It is progressive — higher earners pay a higher percentage. It is separate from payroll taxes, which fund Social Security and Medicare. The One Big Beautiful Bill's tips and overtime exemptions only apply to this tax, not payroll taxes.
payroll taxes
Taxes automatically withheld from paychecks to fund Social Security and Medicare. Unlike income taxes, payroll taxes are flat — everyone pays the same percentage regardless of income, up to a cap. The tips and overtime exemptions in the One Big Beautiful Bill do not reduce payroll taxes.
exclude or deduct
Two ways of reducing taxable income. An exclusion removes income from your gross income entirely before taxes are calculated. A deduction reduces your taxable income after gross income is established. Both lower your tax bill — the One Big Beautiful Bill allows workers to exclude up to $25,000 in tips and $12,500 in overtime from federal taxable income.
14th Amendment
A constitutional amendment ratified in 1868, primarily to grant citizenship to formerly enslaved people. Its Citizenship Clause states that anyone born on US soil is automatically a citizen. Trump's executive order sought to end this — courts immediately blocked it, ruling it contradicts the amendment's plain text.
birthright citizenship
The legal principle, grounded in the 14th Amendment, that anyone born on US soil is automatically a US citizen regardless of the immigration status of their parents. The US is one of roughly 30 countries that grant birthright citizenship.
One Big Beautiful Bill
A sweeping legislative package signed by Trump on July 4, 2025. It made the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent, created federal income tax exemptions for tips and overtime pay, and included a range of other Republican priorities. It passed along party lines in both chambers.